Market Trends: Economic Commentary - Agency Forward®

Economic commentary

Hot inflation and rapid Fed tightening move the economy closer to a recession

October 3, 2022

The core CPI upside surprise for August highlighted the continued cost pressures across the economy as well as the long road back to a normal price environment.

Economic commentary

Net farm income up despite high input costs

September 30, 2022

This month's issue features U.S. commodity prices, energy forecasts, and relevant industry news, including: California’s unplanted acres are up due to intense, longstanding drought conditions and Ukrainian wheat planting expected to fall as war persists and the Ag Barometer climbed, but input costs are still concerning to farmers.

Economic commentary

Strong job growth and slower inflation boost the near-term outlook, but clouds remain for 2023

September 7, 2022

Employers kept hiring at a rapid pace for July while inflation cooled as falling energy prices and healing supply chains eased consumer costs. Combined with signals of continued growth from across the business sector, the recent data imply positive real GDP growth in the third quarter after two consecutive quarters of decline.

Economic commentary

Most crop prices drop sharply this summer

August 24, 2022

This month's issue features U.S. commodity prices, energy forecasts, and relevant industry news, including: Ukraine resumes grain shipments for the first time since Russia’s invasion, hot, dry weather is affecting crop conditions in western Corn Belt and $20 billion within climate and health care bill set aside for agriculture.

Economic commentary

Not a real recession yet but Fed tightening may get us there

August 15, 2022

Despite two consecutive quarters of modest declines in real GDP over the first half of 2022, underlying growth coming from consumers and businesses (along with the labor market) was not consistent with a recession. But spending and investment activity is slowing in response to further acceleration of inflation and higher interest rates. The Fed remains steadfast (if late) in tackling inflation.

Economic commentary

What’s behind the rising cost of commercial property insurance

August 3, 2022

Economic inflation is continuing to squeeze business budgets, and monthly data has not indicated an overall turnaround in rising prices. Insuring to value so that coverage keeps pace with the increase in the cost of repairs is critical, though – as is taking action to help mitigate the potential for loss. Our infographic helps identify what’s driving inflation and what’s contributing to property cost increases.

Economic commentary

EU farmer protests could impact U.S. ag trade

July 26, 2022

This month's issue features U.S. commodity prices, energy forecasts, and relevant industry news, including: USDA lowers projected soybean production due to decreased acreage, corn and soybean crop condition is close to what it was last year and the ag barometer falls to lowest level in nearly six years.