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Economic commentary

Timely data and commentary on employment, financial markets, consumer activity, business performance and inflation.

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Economic commentary

The economy remains hot, likely too hot for the Fed

March 3, 2023

The spike in job creation and consumer spending in January showed that the slower trend of economic growth at the end of 2022 did not carry into the new year. However, the accelerated pace of activity is too fast to slow inflation and further complicates the Fed’s goal to produce price stability. This likely means even more tightening over the first half of 2023, ironically increasing the odds of a harder landing.