Ben supports Nationwide’s primary forecasting and strategic planning functions. He also frequently provides economic commentary and presentations to key stakeholders of the company.
Share Economic growth slows as recessionary conditions loom December 15, 2023 Current Trends The pace of hiring slowed in October and a decline in retail spending suggests that mounting headwinds are finally beginning to slow consumer activity. Business sector growth is also waning in the face of more restrictive credit conditions and rising interest rates. These factors along with softer inflation readings in October support our view that the Fed is done tightening rates for this cycle and will allow tighter financial conditions to cool the economy further. Equity markets roared back sharply in November from October’s downdraw with long-term interest rates falling moderately from recent peaks. Future Outlook Overall activity slowed in October as headwinds for consumers and businesses have finally tamped down spending and the pace of hiring. Higher interest rates and a tighter credit environment should lead to job and investment cuts by businesses, driving a further deterioration of consumer metrics in the months ahead. We foresee a relatively short and mild recession in 2024, focused on the second quarter. The Fed is likely to only gradually reduce interest rates, with lingering inflation pressures resulting in an extended period of restrictive monetary policy — a downside risk for a deeper downturn than currently projected. Citations/Disclaimers The information in this report is provided by Nationwide Economics and is general in nature and not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account any specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. The economic and market forecasts reflect our opinion as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they will not reflect actual performance. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Nationwide, the Nationwide N and Eagle, and Nationwide is on your side are service marks of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company. © 2023 Nationwide Share
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